A proposed construct of AI Economics Hub.
Glossary entry
Counterfactual evidence level
A five-step scale, E0 to E4, for how strong the evidence is that an outcome was caused by AI. E0 is anecdote or expert opinion, E1 a before and after baseline, E2 an adjusted baseline or matched cohort, E3 a holdout group or quasi-experiment, and E4 a controlled experiment that has been independently validated.
Why it matters
An improvement after AI arrives is not proof that AI caused it. The level sets how much money or autonomy a claim can support: no monetised claim below E2.
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