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Glossary entry · Attribution and evidence

Attribution Coverage

The percentage of AI expenditure linked to a baseline, an owner, and evidence of change. The headline metric of AI value management, and the complement of the AI Value Gap.

Why it matters

Attribution coverage tells a CFO or CIO how much AI spend has evidence behind it. Cost is metered to the token, but value usually is not, so without this figure a leadership team cannot say which part of its AI budget is defended and which is, in audit terms, unevidenced.

How it is measured

Outcome-linked AI spend divided by all identified AI spend: direct consumption, licensed seats, embedded tiers and infrastructure. State which test counts as outcome-linked, such as a baseline and an outcome measure or decision-grade evidence, and divide by all identified AI spend, not only the spend already allocated.

Attribution coverage is the measure behind the AI Value Gap: the gap is the share of AI spend that is not connected to a measured outcome, and coverage is the share that is.

Computing a first version takes three steps. Inventory all AI spend, including seats and AI tiers embedded in SaaS contracts, not only API and token spend. Classify each line as outcome-linked (a measured result exists, with a baseline and an owner), activity-linked (usage data only) or unattributed. Then publish the ratio.

The first figure is allowed to be low. There is no reliable industry average to compare it with yet, so the useful signals are the direction of travel and the quality of the evidence behind it. A coverage figure that quietly divides by allocated spend rather than all identified spend flatters the result. Being explicit about the test matters too: the same portfolio can show one figure on "has a baseline and an outcome measure" and a lower one on decision-grade evidence, as the evidence levels explain.

Attribution coverage is not the same as scrap rate, a measure from the Tokenomics Foundation's draft AI value data layer. Scrap rate asks how much of the bill was wasted in production on failed, abandoned or untied work. Attribution coverage asks how much of the bill has evidence that it was worth paying. A workload can score well on one and badly on the other, so report the two side by side.